# Gold Situation Room — Data Sources & Methodology *Last updated: April 2026 | Version 1.0* > **Our commitment:** Every data point on this dashboard is labeled with its source, update frequency, and reliability level. We don't hide limitations — a serious investor deserves to know exactly what they're looking at. --- ## Update Schedule | Section | Updates | Source | Reliability | |---|---|---|---| | Gold Spot Price | Every hour (GitHub Actions) | yfinance → COMEX GC=F front-month | ✅ Live | | Price Charts (1D/5D) | Every hour | yfinance intraday | ✅ Live | | Price Charts (1M+) | Daily | yfinance daily close | ✅ Live | | Key Ratios (Gold/Silver, Oil, S&P, BTC, Copper) | Daily | yfinance (SI=F, CL=F, ^GSPC, BTC-USD, HG=F) | ✅ Live | | LBMA AM/PM Fix | Daily | yfinance GC=F (COMEX proxy — see note) | ⚠️ Estimate | | Central Bank Reserves | Quarterly (WGC reports) | Hardcoded from World Gold Council Q4 2025 | ⚠️ Quarterly estimate | | Central Bank News Feed | Every hour | Google News RSS (CB-keyword filtered) | ✅ Live | | ETF Holdings (GLD, IAU, PHYS) | Daily | yfinance prices + AUM-derived tonne estimate | ✅ Price live / ⚠️ Tonnes estimated | | COT Positioning | Weekly (Fridays, prior Tuesday data) | CFTC Commitment of Traders disaggregated report | ✅ Live (3-day lag) | | COMEX Vault Inventory | Monthly | Hardcoded from COMEX vault reports | ⚠️ Monthly estimate | | Gold Lease Rate | Static estimate | Approximate market estimates (subscription sources required for live) | ⚠️ Estimate | | News Feed | Every hour | RSS: Kitco, BullionVault, GoldPrice.org, Google News, Mining.com, Reuters, Investing.com | ✅ Live | | Macro Indicators (Real Yield, DXY, CPI, Fed Funds, M2) | Daily | yfinance (TNX, TIP, DX-Y.NYB) + FRED-proxy estimates | ✅ Live (some lagged) | | Mining Stocks (GDX, GDXJ, GOLD, NEM, AEM) | Daily | yfinance | ✅ Live | | Miner AISC & Production | Quarterly | Hardcoded from company Q4 2025 earnings reports | ⚠️ Quarterly estimate | | Crisis Asset Performance (YTD) | Daily | yfinance (GC=F, BTC-USD, SI=F, TLT, DXY, VIX) | ✅ Live | | Historical Price (pre-2000) | Static | London PM Fix historical dataset | 📚 Archival | | Gold Seasonality | Static | Calculated from all available yfinance history | 📚 Calculated | | Market Alerts | Every hour | Google News RSS + internal signals | ✅ Live | --- ## Important Limitations ### Central Bank Data Central bank reserve data is published **quarterly** by the World Gold Council and IMF. Monthly changes shown are estimates based on the most recent quarterly report and known buying patterns. **There is typically a 3-6 month lag** between actual transactions and public disclosure. **Turkey (TCMB):** Known to make large, rapid reserve changes — sold 58 tonnes in a single two-week period in early 2026. Our data reflects the most recent confirmed quarterly figure (613t, Q4 2025). **Poland (NBP):** As of March 2026, Poland's central bank chief has proposed selling up to $13B in gold reserves to finance defense spending. **No sales have been confirmed.** This is flagged as ⚠️ SELL WATCH. ### LBMA Fix The LBMA AM/PM Fix is the global benchmark for physical gold contracts. We display an estimate derived from COMEX futures prices as a proxy — not directly from LBMA data (which requires a subscription). The COMEX-LBMA basis is typically $0-5 during normal markets; during stress periods it can diverge significantly. ### COT Data The CFTC Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday for positions as of the prior Tuesday. This means the data is always **3-4 days stale** by publication. During fast markets, speculative positioning can shift significantly in that window. ### Gold Lease Rate Live gold lease rates require access to LBMA/GOFO data (subscription-only). The rates displayed are estimates based on publicly available market commentary. For precise lease rate data, see: LBMA.org.uk (subscription). ### ETF Tonne Estimates ETF gold holdings in tonnes are calculated by dividing the fund's AUM by the current gold price and the fund's stated gold/share ratio. This is a close approximation but may differ slightly from the fund's official daily holdings disclosure. --- ## Data Sources | Source | What we use it for | Notes | |---|---|---| | **yfinance** (Yahoo Finance) | Price, ratios, ETFs, miners, macro | Real-time during market hours; 15-min delay on some instruments | | **CFTC** (cftc.gov) | COT positioning data | Official government source; published Fridays | | **World Gold Council** (gold.org) | Central bank reserves baseline | Quarterly reports; most authoritative source for CB data | | **RSS Feeds** (Kitco, BullionVault, Reuters, etc.) | News headlines | Real-time; sentiment scoring is keyword-based heuristic | | **Google News RSS** | Central bank intelligence | Filtered by CB keywords; coverage depends on news volume | | **COMEX vault reports** | Registered/eligible inventory | Monthly compiled data | | **Company earnings reports** | Miner AISC, production figures | Q4 2025 reports; updated quarterly | --- ## Market Signal Methodology The composite bull/bear signal is scored on a **-10 to +10 scale** from 5 independent factors: | Factor | Weight | Bearish | Neutral | Bullish | |---|---|---|---|---| | **RSI Momentum** | ±2 | RSI >70 (overbought) | 35-60 | RSI <30 (oversold/bounce) | | **Real Yields (10Y TIPS)** | ±2 | >2.5% | 0.5-1.5% | Negative | | **DXY (USD Index)** | ±2 | >108 (strong USD) | 100-104 | <96 (weak USD) | | **ETF Daily Flows** | ±2 | Heavy outflows >3t | Flat | Strong inflows >3t | | **COT Net Percentile** | ±1.5 | >85th (crowded long) | 20-65th | <20th (extreme short) | **Interpretation:** This is a momentum/positioning composite, not a price forecast. A score of +8 means multiple tailwinds are aligned — it does not predict direction. Gold has historically sustained RSI>70 for months during bull runs. --- ## Contango / Backwardation Gold is almost always in **contango** (futures > spot) — the basis reflects storage and financing costs (~0.2-0.5% annualized). **Backwardation** (spot > futures) is rare and historically significant, indicating: - Extreme physical demand / supply shortage - Delivery stress in the futures market - Short-squeeze potential The basis chart shows the spread between COMEX front-month and December futures over time. Red shading = backwardation episodes. --- ## GitHub Actions / Update Infrastructure Data is refreshed automatically via **GitHub Actions** on a schedule: - **Hourly:** Price, ratios, news, market alerts, ETFs, crisis assets - **Daily at market close:** Miners, macro, COT (when published) - **On push:** Full refresh triggered on any code deploy The dashboard is a **static site** hosted on GitHub Pages. All data is pre-computed and stored as JSON files. There is no backend server — data freshness depends entirely on the GitHub Actions schedule running successfully. If a data refresh fails (GitHub Actions timeout, API rate limit), the dashboard will display the last successfully fetched data with a staleness indicator. --- *Questions or data corrections? Open an issue at github.com/Sham00/gold-situation-room*