The 30Y mortgage tracks the 10Y Treasury, not the Fed Funds Rate directly — but expectations of cuts (or holds) move the 10Y and therefore mortgage pricing. Watch FOMC dots and CPI surprises.

The spread has historically compressed after peaks (avg ~170 bps; elevated spreads above 250 bps signal refinance lock-in risk and lender uncertainty). Compression = better affordability without needing rate cuts.

New construction (Census Bureau, monthly) is the supply relief valve. Watch for permit declines — they lead starts by ~6 months and signal future inventory tightness.

~70% of outstanding mortgages are below 4%. Sellers with low rates are reluctant to trade into 6-7% financing — suppressing existing-home inventory and keeping prices elevated despite softer demand.

A cooling labor market reduces ability-to-pay; strong wage growth partially offsets affordability headwinds. Watch the ratio of median income to median home price month-to-month.

MORTGAGE30US is the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released each Thursday. This room updates weekly; watch for directional changes in the first print after each FOMC meeting.