OPEC+ production quota decisions OPEC+
Next ministerial meeting — monitor communiqué for output guidance changes

EIA weekly crude inventory report Weekly
Wednesdays 10:30 EST — builds/draws vs. consensus can move WTI ±1–2%

Baker Hughes weekly rig count Weekly
Fridays — leading indicator of US production capex; currently ~600 active rigs

US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release announcements Supply
DOE announcements on drawdowns or refill schedule — direct supply impact

Iran & Venezuela sanction changes Supply Risk
Combined ~5M bpd potential supply — waiver or tightening shifts global balance

US production trend — currently ~13M bpd Supply
Watch Permian Basin guidance and shale breakeven ($55–$60/bbl) vs. WTI spot

Refinery utilization rate & crack spreads Margin
3-2-1 crack spread reflects refiner margin; high utilization tightens gasoline supply

Demand signals: China PMI & airline capacity utilization Demand
China consumes ~15% of global oil; aviation is ~8% of demand — both are key leading indicators